Historically in the Middle East it has always been a struggle for countries to ensure sufficient fresh water supplies for their own people.
In the modern era, particularly since the end of the British and French Mandates and the creation of the State of Israel, a number of attempts have been made to construct a workable framework in which countries could share the Middle East’s scarce water resources.
One of the most notable was the American inspired Unified or Johnston Plan for the development of the Jordan River basin, which was formalised in 1955. However with strong objections, particularly from Syria and Lebanon, the initiative went the way of previous water sharing proposals. More recently there has been some progress between Israel and Jordan and Syria and Lebanon.
Red Sea-Dead Sea Project
Although a decision on how to proceed is still some time away, the announcement carried by the Jordan Times (16 February 2011) that the World Bank sponsored Red Sea-Dead Sea feasibility study was now complete is certain to be welcomed by the water authorities in Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories.
However the World Bank report is not yet ready for public inspection said a spokesman for the Jordan Valley Authority, “The results cannot be announced to the public yet as they are draft reports and can only be evaluated after sub-studies are made.”
The Red Sea-Dead Sea Project, should it go ahead, is designed to replenish the rapidly diminishing waters of the Dead Sea from the Red Sea and establish a number of desalination plants which would provide much needed fresh drinking water for the states involved.
The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water
The second report, The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water (February 2011) was published by the authoritative Strategic Foresight Group with the input of over 100 high level officials, including serving and former government ministers. Its contributors, as the report title suggests, endeavoured to link peace in the region to an equitable distribution of water resources.
The Erbil based Kurdish Globe (13 February 2011) called the Blue Peace a, “Roadmap for action” but cautioned, “At a time when the Middle East is facing an acute political crisis, there is a risk of the region plunging into an even bigger humanitarian crisis with the depletion of water resources, and its subsequent impact on food, health and migration.”
The report looked in detail at the seven countries (including the Palestine Territories) facing the most acute water shortages: Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and the Palestine Territories.
Rapidly Diminishing Water Resources in the Middle East
Much of the statistical evidence contained in the report points to rapidly diminishing water resources. “The river flows in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan have depleted by 50 to 90 per cent from 1960 to 2010. The Yarmouk River declined from 600 million cubic metres (MCM) to about 250-300 MCM per year.”
While the reduction in the Yarmouk River flow is worrying, the reduction in the Jordan River flow is alarming, declining from 1,300 MCM to 100 MCM. The Euphrates flow, measured in 2009 – a drought year, fell from 27 billion cubic metres (BCM) to 9 BCM.
Creeping desertification, particularly in Iraq, reduced availability of fresh water from most of the aquifers supplying Israel and the Palestinian Territories, reduced levels in the Iraqi marshlands and falling levels in Lake Tiberias, (Kinneret) all add to what is a very bleak picture.
The Blue Peace report rightly points out that a comprehensive approach is required. It said, “It is necessary to act on several fronts at the same time, and yet it is possible to choose different entry points of intervention as per social and political dynamics…”
The report suggests, “Circles of Cooperation” as the way forward, with Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan in the first circle and Israel and the Palestinian Territories in the second.
Of course only time will tell if agreement can be reached on this new strategy. Will circles remain unbroken or will this hugely ambitious scheme go the way of the Johnston plan and other initiatives?
Jordan’s Prince Hassan, a key figure in the Blue Peace proposal, optimistically said, "War does not make additional water but regional cooperation can…”
Sources:
Strategic Foresight Group, The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water, site accessed 19 February 2011
Kurdish Globe, The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water, 13 February 2011
Namrouqa N, Red-Dead feasibility study ‘complete’ Jordan Times,16 February 2011
Amery, A H and Wolf A T (EDS), Water in the Middle East: Geography of Peace, University of Texas Press, 2000
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